Top MLB Betting Picks: Why Pirates and Twins Offer Value Today

The temps are moving above frozen in the Northeast and Midwest and we have a full card of baseball action today. 

Let’s win some MLB Picks.

Season Record 4-7-1, -3.75 Units

Pirates at Cubs

Pirates ML (+128 FanDuel)

It’s super early, but the Pirates have hit well vs. lefties so far, slashing .264/.355/.380 with a wRC+ of 111. A big reason is that Oneil Cruz has suddenly discovered how to hit southpaws. He has three homers and a 395 wRC+ in 13 PA’s so far. Yes it might be small sample size theater here. In his career has just a .184 avg vs. lefties with 7 homers in 401 PA’s before 2026. He was so bad in 2025 he generally got platooned out. The improvement is so start though that it really feels like he worked to improve here and it's panning out.

Pittsburgh does face a tough lefty in Shota Imanaga (3.05 xERA, 3.49 SIERA in 10 IP, 3.32 career ERA). But the Pirates have an interesting arm of their own today in Carmen Mlodzinski. His name is tough to pronounce, but he’s a very impressive mix of 31.2% K% and 52% GB%. The estimators eat that up as he’s got a 2.49 SIERA. His ERA is an inflated 4.00 in 9 IP as he has a .440 BABIP and just a 71% LOB%. Groundball pitchers are prone to slightly inflated BABIP’s, not nearly this high though.

On top of all this, I’m not sure the Cubs are a much better team than Pittsburgh. The pitching matchup is makes this a closer to even game than the odds suggest, so give me the Bucs at plus money.

Twins at Blue Jays

Twins ML (+120 bet365)

I am really going to close my eyes on this one. 

After 162 games, the Jays will almost surely have a much better record than the Twins. But right here right now, the Jays are in a bad way. Anthony Santander is probably out for the year, Addison Barger is on the Il (and was struggling mightily) and so is Alejandro Kirk. 

Ernie Clement is a fun player for everyone to root for, but he’s a decent batting avg guy with very little pop and he’s now batting in the 6 hole. Its an extremely easy lineup to navigate right now. So easy even Twins SP Simeon Woods-Richardson and his 13% K% can probably find his way through it. In all fairness to SWR, he’s been excellent since August of last year and has a 2.30 ERA and 1.11 WHIP after his first two starts.

The Jays injuries extend to their rotation as they will have newly signed Patrick Corbin making his season debut tonight. The lefty veteran was pretty much replacement level in Texas last year, which is to say he gives a team innings and a mid 4’s ERA. That works over the course of a season, but in a single game that’s beyond meh. And who’s to say what he has in his first outing since September. I like the plus money here too.